Why Thailand’s F-16s just bombed Cambodia in escalating border dispute | About That

A long-simmering border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has erupted into open conflict, with both nations' militaries engaged in active fighting and blaming the other for initiating the violence. The situation has escalated rapidly, with clashes reported in at least six different locations along their shared border.

The immediate trigger for the most recent fighting appears to be an incident near an ancient Hindu temple. The two countries offer starkly different accounts. Thai officials claim their forces detected a Cambodian surveillance drone, which was followed by the arrival of six armed Cambodian soldiers. According to the Thai account, after a shouted warning was ignored, the Cambodian soldiers opened fire with heavy weapons, including rocket launchers. Conversely, Cambodian officials deny this, asserting that Thai forces were the aggressors. They contend that Thai soldiers were laying barbed wire in disputed territory, launched their own drone, and fired first on Cambodian positions.

Regardless of the true catalyst, the fighting quickly intensified and spread. The conflict now involves rocket and artillery fire from Cambodia into Thailand, while the Thai military has deployed F-16 jets for air strikes against Cambodian targets. This sharp escalation has resulted in casualties, including at least 11 civilians killed in Thailand, according to official reports.

At the heart of the conflict is a historically contested border spanning approximately $817 \text{ km}$. The demarcation is not as clear as it appears on a map. Cambodia bases its claims, particularly around key temple sites, on maps drawn during the early 1900s under French colonial rule. Thailand, the economically and militarily superior nation, argues these maps are inaccurate and has established de facto control over strategic high ground in these areas. This has fostered deep-seated resentment on both sides. Many Thais feel that colonial France unjustly ceded their land to Cambodia, while Cambodians view the territory as an integral part of their ancient Khmer heritage.

Although the International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded sovereignty of several temple areas to Cambodia in the 1960s, Thailand stopped recognizing the court's authority around the same time and continues to reject its jurisdiction on the matter. The Thai military maintains a powerful influence over any diplomatic or political discussions concerning the border, a factor that contributes to how quickly disputes can escalate.

Tensions had been mounting for weeks prior to the major outbreak. In May, a Cambodian soldier was killed in a border skirmish, with both sides claiming self-defense. Shortly after, several Thai soldiers were injured by landmines in disputed territory, with one losing a foot and another a leg. Thailand accused Cambodia of laying new mines, a claim Cambodia refuted by stating the soldiers had strayed from safe routes and triggered old munitions. This was followed by a series of tit-for-tat economic retaliations, including Thailand cutting electricity transfers and Cambodia banning Thai imports.

A pivotal event that dramatically worsened the crisis was the leak of a 17-minute phone call in mid-June between then-Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen, the former Prime Minister of Cambodia and an immensely powerful figure. In the call, leaked by Hun Sen's own camp, Shinawatra attempted to de-escalate the situation. She referred to herself as Hun Sen's "niece" and him as "uncle"—terms of endearment reflecting a long-standing friendship between their two political dynasties. However, her deferential tone and apparent criticism of her own military's actions were perceived by the Thai public as appeasement and even treasonous.

The leak sparked widespread outrage in Thailand. Shinawatra’s ruling coalition collapsed, she faced an ethics investigation, and was ultimately suspended from office by the country's constitutional court. The incident shattered any trust between the two governments.

This political fallout has created a perilous stalemate. The new Thai leadership, having seen its predecessor fall for appearing too conciliatory, has every incentive to adopt a hard-line stance. Meanwhile, Hun Sen has successfully framed Cambodia as a "David" standing up to a "Goliath" aggressor, leaving him little room to back down. While experts believe a full-scale war remains unlikely, they also warn that both nations may lack the strong, stable leadership required to pull back from the brink of a wider conflict.